After experiencing an early capital frenzy to enter the market - rapid increase in market penetration and intensified competition - release of national standards for charging piles - gradual finalization of market clearing leaders, the current market is gradually moving into In recent years, the domestic vehicle-pile ratio has been maintained at 3:1 or below, and the profit model of manufacturers is becoming more and more mature, and the construction of charging piles is gradually shifting from subsidy-driven to market-driven. With the emergence of trends such as price reduction of DC charging modules, integration of light storage and charging, and liquid cooling technology to solve the temperature rise of supercharging, high-power fast charging, and liquid cooling supercharging will become the main layout direction in the future. Based on the assumptions of the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, continuous downward movement of vehicle-pile ratio, increase of public charging pile ratio, and increase of fast charging penetration rate, we are optimistic to assume that by 25 years, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 10.41 million units, the ownership will reach 36.04 million units, the vehicle-pile ratio will drop to 2.17:1, and the public pile ratio will increase to 45.7%, and the incremental construction of domestic charging piles is expected to be 4.46 million by 25 years, corresponding to an incremental market The space is 74.6 billion yuan.

Overseas: Huge market space under a high vehicle-pile ratio

Europe and the U.S. are the second and third largest charging pile markets in the world, and the public vehicle-pile ratio is much higher than that of China, with 15:1 and 17:1 in Europe and the U.S. respectively, and the slow-charging ratio is mainly 86% and 81% respectively. Driven by the goal of carbon neutrality, overseas countries have accelerated market construction by specifying the construction plan of on board charger and giving incentive and subsidy policies. Based on IEA's forecast of charging pile construction in Europe and America, we assume that the unit price of fast charging pile in Europe and America is 120,000-150,000 RMB and the unit price of a slow charging pile is 2,500-3,000 RMB, and we optimistically expect that the public charging pile market in Europe and America will be 53.4 billion RMB by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 45.8%.

The overseas charger market is different from the domestic market in terms of classification, certification standard, consumer preference, charging method and profit concession, etc. Domestic enterprises are facing cultural differences and product certification thresholds when going abroad.

Grasp the upstream components of charging pile investment opportunities

The hardware components of the ev charger include a charging module, distribution filtering equipment, monitoring and billing equipment, battery maintenance equipment, etc. The charging module accounts for up to 50% of the total cost. The cost composition of charging modules includes power devices (30%), magnetic components (25%), semiconductor ICs (10%), capacitors (10%), PCBs (10%), etc. Based on this, we expect that by 2025, the incremental market space of charging pile upstream modules is 33.5 billion yuan; among which, the incremental market space of power devices, magnetic components, semiconductor ICs, and capacitors are 10/8/4/34/34 billion yuan respectively. Assuming that the domestic DC gun price is RMB 3500-4000, the AC gun price is RMB 200-300, and the charging pile connector price is RMB 600-1000, the corresponding incremental market space of charging gun/connector is RMB 4.8/2.7 billion respectively.

I. Domestic: high-power fast charging trend to accelerate penetration

1.1, new energy vehicle charging pile products can be divided into AC pile and DC pile according to charging mode

AC pile: AC electric vehicle charging pile, commonly known as "slow charging", by the vehicle charger OBC will grid AC power for voltage rectification, converted to DC power after charging the car battery, with conventional voltage, low power, slow charging but low-cost characteristics. DC pile: DC electric vehicle charging station, commonly known as "fast charging", the pile comes with AC/DC charging module voltage rectification, and can be directly converted to DC for car charging, with high voltage, high power, and fast charging characteristics.

1.2 Charging pile business model is mainly divided into operators, car enterprises, the third-party dominant mode

At present, the mainstream business model of the charging pile industry is mainly divided into operator-led, vehicle-led, third-party-led, and state-owned enterprises-led models. These representative enterprises or platforms mainly realize business income by collecting and charging service fees, in addition, other sources of income such as advertising income, traffic realization, supporting catering, value-added services, etc. are also other income that charging pile manufacturers are committed to expanding. The operation of charging piles requires a high degree of cooperation among operators, vehicle enterprises, and third-party platforms, so the integration of resources from all parties is also the key to the core business of charging piles. In addition, the operation of charging piles needs to consider the selection of sites and the use of equipment, which determine the charging application scenarios and customer groups, as well as the utilization rate of charging piles and the pricing of service fees to reasonably balance the revenue and cost.

1.3. The layout of domestic charging piles is fast, the ratio of vehicles to piles has been decreasing in recent years, and the construction of charging piles has shifted from subsidy-driven to market-driven.

The rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry has led to the demand for charging and switching, and the charging pile industry has been driven by a large number of policies and subsidies to accelerate the construction process in the early stage. Along with the gradual stabilization of the charging pile market pattern and the maturity of the profit model of manufacturers, the construction of charging piles is gradually shifting from subsidy-driven to market-driven. As of September 2022, the number of new energy vehicles in China reached 11.49 million, and the number of charging piles reached 4.488 million, the vehicle-pile ratio dropped to 2.56:1, and there is still some room for development to achieve a lower vehicle-pile ratio.

1.4 The market pattern of charging pile has entered a new stage of stable operation after reshuffling

The development of the domestic charging pile market has gone through several stages, after experiencing the early capital madness - the market penetration rate rapidly increased competition - the release of a national standard for charging pile - market clearing After the frontrunner was gradually established, the current charging pile market gradually entered a new stage of stable operation, forming a situation in which private enterprise platform providers are dominant and state-owned enterprises are complementary in operation. As of September 2022, the four operators, namely, TCC, Star Charging, Cloud Fast Charging, and State Grid, contributed 63.7% of the market share.

1.5, the ratio of the public pile to the private pile is tilted, and each local city increases the construction of public charging pile

Although the level of the car-pile ratio has been declining fast in recent years, the main increment of charging piles still comes from private charging piles. As of September 22, the public car-pile ratio is still 7:1, which is not enough power to decrease compared with previous years, of which private piles account for 63.6% and public piles only account for 36.4%. Behind the rapid development of the charging pile market, there are still problems such as difficulty in building piles in the community, uneven development of public charging facilities, and the user charging experience to be improved. 22 At the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments put forward the implementation opinions on further improving the service guarantee capacity of electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and planned that by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", China's electric vehicle charging guarantee capacity will be further improved. It is planned that by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's electric vehicle charging guarantee capacity will be further improved, and a moderately advanced, balanced layout, intelligent, and efficient charging infrastructure system will be formed to meet the charging needs of more than 20 million electric vehicles.